Gumede et al (759-776)

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A performance trend analysis of modules at-risk: A case study of a university of technology in South Africa

Phiwayinkosi R. Gumede

Teaching and Learning Development Centre, Mangosuthu University of Technology, Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9203-8457

Halalisile Hlobile Xulu

Teaching and Learning Development Centre, Mangosuthu University of Technology, Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0001-1101-9888

Mashango Phillemon Sithole

Centre for Academic Excellence, University of Limpopo, Polokwane, Limpopo, South Africa

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5119-1183

Abstract

The persisting problem of high failure rates in certain academic modules poses a major threat to student progression and graduation rates in higher education. This is particularly more pronounced in South African universities, where low throughput and retention rates prevail. This study examines the performance trends of at-risk modules, defined as those with pass rates below 50% over a three-year period (2018–2020) at a South African University of Technology. Situated within the framing of learning analytics, the study shifts the focus from student-level risk to structural patterns of academic underperformance at the module level. Following descriptive statistics and longitudinal analysis, the findings reveal that average pass rates fluctuated modestly across the period. Several modules were found to be repeatedly at risk, with six appearing across the three years and 52 in two consecutive years, thus attesting to persistent pedagogical and curricular challenges. The discussion draws on relevant literature to interpret these trends as institutional indicators of academic risk that require targeted, data-informed interventions. The study contributes to the evolving discourse on academic development by demonstrating how learning analytics can support evidence-based curriculum improvement, early warning systems, and quality assurance processes aimed at improving throughput and equity in higher education.

Keywords: Dropout rate; graduation rate; module performance; modules at-risk; student success

How to cite this article: Gumede, P.R., Xulu, H.H., & Sithole, M.P. (2025). A performance trend analysis of modules at-risk: A case study of a university of technology in South Africa. African Perspectives of Research in Teaching and Learning, 9(6), 759-776.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.70875/v9i6article8